By Glenn Shafer
Both in technology and in sensible affairs we cause via combining evidence in basic terms inconclusively supported by way of facts. development on an summary figuring out of this technique of mixture, this booklet constructs a brand new idea of epistemic chance. the idea attracts at the paintings of A. P. Dempster yet diverges from Depster's perspective by way of settling on his "lower chances" as epistemic chances and taking his rule for combining "upper and reduce possibilities" as basic.
The publication opens with a critique of the well known Bayesian conception of epistemic likelihood. It then proceeds to strengthen a substitute for the additive set services and the guideline of conditioning of the Bayesian concept: set features that desire simply be what Choquet known as "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set capabilities. This rule, including the belief of "weights of evidence," ends up in either an in depth new conception and a greater realizing of the Bayesian thought. The ebook concludes with a short therapy of statistical inference and a dialogue of the restrictions of epistemic chance. Appendices comprise mathematical proofs, that are really user-friendly and rarely depend upon arithmetic extra complicated that the binomial theorem.
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A Mathematical Theory of Evidence by Glenn Shafer